Roger Harrabin, an environment analyst at the BBC, told the Radio Times: “The
trouble is that we simply don’t know how much to trust the Met Office. How
often does it get the weather right and wrong. And we don’t know how it
compares with other, independent forecasters.

“Can we rely on them if we are planning a garden party at the weekend? Or want
to know if we should take a brolly with us tomorrow? Or planning a holiday
next week?

“In a few year’s time hopefully we’ll all have a better idea of whom to trust.
By then the Met Office might have recovered enough confidence to share with
us its winter prediction of whether to buy a plane ticket or a toboggan.”

The decision to publish the assessment was welcomed by rival forecasters.

Piers Corbyn, the owner of WeatherAction, an independent forecaster, said:
“This is a step in the right direction. The Met Office has got it repeatedly
and yet it remains the public service forecaster. There needs to be greater
competition. I hope this will encourage but it is vital that the assessors
and their measurements are independent and objective.”

The Met Office stopped making its long-term forecasts public in March after a
series of major gaffes.

In 2009 a predicted “barbecue summer” became a washout, while a subsequent
forecast of a “mild winter” turned out to be one of the coldest in 30 years.

This winter, however, its seasonal forecast proved more accurate. Mr Harrabin
said: “Why didn’t the Met Office tell us that Greenland was about to swap
weather with Godalming? The truth is it [The Met Office] did suspect we were
in for an exceptionally cold early winter, and told the Cabinet Office so in
October. But we weren’t let in on the secret.

“The reason? The Met Office no longer publishes its seasonal forecasts because
of the ridicule it suffered for predicting a barbecue summer in 2009 – the
summer that campers floated around in their tents.”

Edmund King, President of the AA, said the Met Office had a “public duty� to
publish its seasonal forecasts. He said that according to a recent AA survey
of 20,000 of its members only 3% of motorists bought winter tyres.

He said: “The Met Office has a public duty to tell us its forecasts so that we
can prepare for adverse weather. As it was many motorists were caught out.”

A spokesman for the Met Office said: “In late October we informed the Cabinet
office that there were early indications of a cold start to winter.
Following public research we were told that a monthly outlook would be of
more use which is why we now have the 6ᆣ day and 16-30 day forecast on our
website.”